Blue Jays at Phillies
Last play · Derek Hill singles on a ground ball to center fielder Brett Bateman. J.T. Realmuto scores. Bryson Stott to 3rd. Alec Bohm to 2nd.
Win probability
Phillies100%
TOR 0%PHI 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTOR 2 – 4 PHI
Phillies led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 49.9% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+217 / -235
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Phillies favored ↑50%Blue Jays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Bryson Stott singles on a line drive to right fielder Nathan Lukes. Luis Arraez scores. J.T. Realmuto to 2nd. (inning 12) — +42% Phillies
12Derek Hill singles on a ground ball to center fielder Brett Bateman. J.T. Realmuto scores. Bryson Stott to 3rd. Alec Bohm to 2nd.6–7
12Bryson Stott singles on a line drive to right fielder Nathan Lukes. Luis Arraez scores. J.T. Realmuto to 2nd.6–6
12Blue Jays challenged (force play), call on the field was upheld: Jesús Sánchez grounds into a double play, second baseman Luis Arraez to shortstop Trea Turner to first baseman Alec Bohm. Nathan Lukes scores. Brett Bateman out at 2nd. Jesús Sánchez out at 1st.6–5
8Andrés Giménez singles on a fly ball to right fielder Bryce Harper. Kazuma Okamoto scores. Ernie Clement scores.5–5
8Ernie Clement doubles (28) on a fly ball to left fielder Brandon Marsh. Alejandro Kirk scores. Kazuma Okamoto to 3rd.3–5
6Alec Bohm singles on a line drive to center fielder Brett Bateman. Bryson Stott scores. Alec Bohm to 2nd.2–5
5Kyle Schwarber homers (35) on a fly ball to right field.2–4
5Brett Bateman singles on a ground ball to left fielder Brandon Marsh. Myles Straw scores. Davis Schneider to 2nd.2–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
