Marlins at Phillies
Last play · Joe Mack flies out to left fielder Brandon Marsh.
Win probability
Phillies100%
MIA 0%PHI 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIA 0 – 3 PHI
Phillies led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+131 / -141
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Phillies favored ↑50%Marlins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Luis Arraez homers (6) on a fly ball to right center field. Bryce Harper scores. (inning 3) — +17% Phillies
7Phillies challenged (tag play), call on the field was overturned: Trea Turner doubles (22) on a line drive to center fielder Jakob Marsee. Kyle Schwarber scores.1–4
6Javier Sanoja homers (6) on a line drive to left field.1–3
3Luis Arraez homers (6) on a fly ball to right center field. Bryce Harper scores.0–3
2Garrett Stubbs singles on a ground ball to shortstop Otto Lopez. Luis Arraez scores. Brandon Marsh to 3rd. Justin Crawford to 2nd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
