Marlins at Phillies
Last play · Esteury Ruiz grounds out, third baseman Bryson Stott to first baseman Alec Bohm.
Win probability
Phillies100%
MIA 0%PHI 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIA 2 – 1 PHI
Marlins led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 51.3% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+195 / -211
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Phillies favored ↑50%Marlins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Bryson Stott singles on a ground ball to center fielder Jakob Marsee. Luis Arraez scores. Alec Bohm scores. (inning 6) — +34% Phillies
8Kyle Schwarber singles on a line drive to left fielder Heriberto Hernández. Bryson Stott scores. J.T. Realmuto to 2nd.4–6
8Heriberto Hernández singles on a line drive to center fielder Justin Crawford. Griffin Conine scores.4–5
6Justin Crawford singles on a ground ball to left fielder Heriberto Hernández. Bryson Stott scores. Brandon Marsh to 2nd.3–5
6Bryson Stott singles on a ground ball to center fielder Jakob Marsee. Luis Arraez scores. Alec Bohm scores.3–4
6Alec Bohm doubles (22) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Heriberto Hernández. Trea Turner scores. Luis Arraez to 3rd.3–2
6Heriberto Hernández grounds into a force out, third baseman Bryson Stott to second baseman Luis Arraez. Otto Lopez scores. Griffin Conine out at 2nd. Heriberto Hernández to 1st. Throwing error by second baseman Luis Arraez.3–1
5Xavier Edwards singles on a line drive to center fielder Justin Crawford. Brian Navarreto scores. Xavier Edwards out at 2nd on the throw, center fielder Justin Crawford to shortstop Trea Turner to second baseman Luis Arraez. Jakob Marsee to 3rd.2–1
2Griffin Conine homers (14) on a line drive to center field.1–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
