Cardinals at Phillies
Last play · Jimmy Crooks flies out to left fielder Brandon Marsh.
Win probability
Phillies100%
STL 0%PHI 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSTL 0 – 7 PHI
Phillies led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 9
fair over 51.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+143 / -154
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Phillies favored ↑50%Cardinals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Edmundo Sosa doubles (7) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Nathan Church. Trea Turner scores. Alec Bohm scores. Edmundo Sosa to 3rd. (inning 1) — +16% Phillies
9José Fermín grounds out, shortstop Trea Turner to first baseman Kyle Schwarber. Nathan Church scores.3–12
8Kyle Schwarber homers (38) on a fly ball to right field.2–12
8JJ Wetherholt homers (17) on a fly ball to center field.2–11
6Bryce Harper homers (26) on a fly ball to right center field. Justin Crawford scores. Trea Turner scores.1–11
6Kyle Schwarber out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Jordan Walker. J.T. Realmuto scores.1–8
6Alec Burleson singles on a ground ball to left fielder Bryan De La Cruz. Blaze Jordan scores.1–7
3Derek Hill doubles (4) on a ground ball to left fielder Joshua Báez. Bryan De La Cruz scores.0–7
3J.T. Realmuto out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Jordan Walker. Edmundo Sosa scores. Bryan De La Cruz to 3rd.0–6
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
