Cardinals at Phillies
Last play · Kyle Schwarber homers (39) on a fly ball to center field. Bryan De La Cruz scores.
Win probability
Phillies100%
STL 0%PHI 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSTL 3 – 0 PHI
Cardinals led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 51.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+200 / -216
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Phillies favored ↑50%Cardinals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Bryan De La Cruz singles on a ground ball to left fielder José Fermín. Edmundo Sosa scores. (inning 9) — +42% Phillies
9Kyle Schwarber homers (39) on a fly ball to center field. Bryan De La Cruz scores.4–6
9Bryan De La Cruz singles on a ground ball to left fielder José Fermín. Edmundo Sosa scores.4–4
9Edmundo Sosa doubles (8) on a ground ball to left fielder José Fermín. Bryce Harper scores. J.T. Realmuto scores. Justin Crawford scores.4–3
7JJ Wetherholt singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Bryan De La Cruz. Ramón Urías scores. Pedro Pagés to 2nd.4–0
5José Fermín homers (6) on a fly ball to left center field.3–0
4Alec Burleson singles on a ground ball to right fielder Bryan De La Cruz, deflected by first baseman Kyle Schwarber. Jordan Walker scores.2–0
1Alec Burleson singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Justin Crawford. JJ Wetherholt scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
