Braves at Phillies
Last play · Ozzie Albies grounds out to first baseman Alec Bohm.
Win probability
Phillies100%
ATL 0%PHI 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalATL 1 – 4 PHI
Phillies led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 51.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+137 / -166
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Phillies favored ↑50%Braves favored ↓
Biggest swing · Drake Baldwin challenged (pitch result), call on the field was confirmed: J.T. Realmuto walks. Trea Turner scores. Luis Arraez to 3rd. Alec Bohm to 2nd. (inning 1) — +9% Phillies
7Austin Riley homers (16) on a fly ball to left center field.2–4
4Kyle Schwarber homers (41) on a fly ball to right field.1–4
3Ronald Acuña Jr. homers (15) on a fly ball to left center field.1–3
2Kyle Schwarber grounds out to first baseman Matt Olson. Derek Hill scores.0–3
1Drake Baldwin challenged (pitch result), call on the field was confirmed: J.T. Realmuto walks. Trea Turner scores. Luis Arraez to 3rd. Alec Bohm to 2nd.0–2
1Luis Arraez singles on a line drive to right fielder Ronald Acuña Jr. Kyle Schwarber scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
