Braves at Phillies
Last play · Brandon Marsh pops out to third baseman Austin Riley in foul territory.
Win probability
Phillies0%
ATL 100%PHI 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalATL 3 – 2 PHI
Braves led after 5
Total runs
7
opened 7
fair over 48.2% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+102 / -123
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Phillies favored ↑50%Braves favored ↓
Biggest swing · Mauricio Dubón homers (11) on a fly ball to left center field. Mike Yastrzemski scores. (inning 8) — -21% Braves
8Mauricio Dubón homers (11) on a fly ball to left center field. Mike Yastrzemski scores.5–2
4Alec Bohm homers (15) on a fly ball to left field.3–2
2Alec Bohm doubles (24) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Lane Thomas. Luis Arraez scores.3–1
2Ronald Acuña Jr. singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Derek Hill. Austin Riley scores.3–0
2Ha-Seong Kim grounds out, third baseman Edmundo Sosa to first baseman Alec Bohm. Mauricio Dubón scores. Austin Riley to 2nd.2–0
2Austin Riley singles on a ground ball to right fielder Bryce Harper. Lane Thomas scores. Mauricio Dubón to 3rd. Fielding error by right fielder Bryce Harper.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
