Braves at Phillies
Last play · Edmundo Sosa strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Phillies0%
ATL 100%PHI 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalATL 0 – 2 PHI
Phillies led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 50.4% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-107 / -112
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Phillies favored ↑50%Braves favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ronald Acuña Jr. homers (16) on a fly ball to left center field. Mike Yastrzemski scores. Drake Baldwin scores. (inning 8) — -42% Braves
9Austin Riley triples (2) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Derek Hill. Ozzie Albies scores.5–4
8Ronald Acuña Jr. homers (16) on a fly ball to left center field. Mike Yastrzemski scores. Drake Baldwin scores.4–4
7Kyle Schwarber homers (42) on a fly ball to right field.1–4
7Derek Hill homers (10) on a fly ball to left field.1–3
6Ronald Acuña Jr. out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Bryce Harper. Mike Yastrzemski scores.1–2
1Alec Bohm doubles (25) on a line drive to left fielder Mike Yastrzemski. Trea Turner scores.0–2
1Luis Arraez out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Michael Harris II. Kyle Schwarber scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
