Astros at Phillies
HOU6–
PHI5Last play · Kyle Schwarber pops out to second baseman Nick Allen.
Win probability
Phillies0%
HOU 100%PHI 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalHOU 5 – 0 PHI
Astros led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+112 / -135
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Phillies favored ↑50%Astros favored ↓
Biggest swing · Christian Walker homers (25) on a fly ball to left center field. Daulton Varsho scores. Yainer Diaz scores. (inning 2) — -33% Astros
9Edmundo Sosa doubles (9) on a fly ball to center fielder Daulton Varsho. Bryson Stott scores.6–5
7Brandon Marsh doubles (19) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Cam Smith. Alec Bohm scores. Bryson Stott to 3rd.6–4
7Daulton Varsho homers (11) on a fly ball to right center field.6–3
6Trea Turner homers (18) on a fly ball to left field. Kyle Schwarber scores.5–3
6Kyle Schwarber singles on a ground ball to right fielder Cam Smith. Justin Crawford scores.5–1
4Cam Smith homers (18) on a fly ball to left center field.5–0
2Jeremy Peña doubles (17) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Brandon Marsh. Cam Smith scores.4–0
2Christian Walker homers (25) on a fly ball to left center field. Daulton Varsho scores. Yainer Diaz scores.3–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.