Nationals at Pirates
Last play · Luis García Jr. strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Pirates100%
WSH 0%PIT 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalWSH 1 – 5 PIT
Pirates led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7 ↑
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+189 / -232
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Pirates favored ↑50%Nationals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Brandon Lowe singles on a fly ball to left fielder Daylen Lile. Jake Mangum scores. Henry Davis scores. Oneil Cruz to 3rd. (inning 2) — +20% Pirates
8Joey Bart out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder José Tena. Henry Davis scores.5–16
7Nasim Nuñez singles on a ground ball to right fielder Nick Yorke. José Tena scores. Jorbit Vivas scores.5–15
7Jacob Young homers (2) on a fly ball to left field. Daylen Lile scores.3–15
6Brandon Lowe homers (6) on a fly ball to right field. Jake Mangum scores. Oneil Cruz scores.1–15
6Oneil Cruz singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder James Wood. Spencer Horwitz scores. Konnor Griffin scores. Jake Mangum to 3rd.1–12
6Konnor Griffin singles on a ground ball to right fielder James Wood. Ryan O'Hearn scores. Spencer Horwitz to 2nd.1–10
6Ryan O'Hearn doubles (3) on a sharp fly ball to center fielder Jacob Young. Bryan Reynolds scores.1–9
6Bryan Reynolds triples (1) on a line drive to right fielder James Wood. Henry Davis scores. Oneil Cruz scores. Brandon Lowe scores.1–8
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
