Nationals at Pirates
Last play · Drew Millas lines out to right fielder Bryan Reynolds.
Win probability
Pirates100%
WSH 0%PIT 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalWSH 0 – 2 PIT
Pirates led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9 ↑
fair over 47.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+144 / -175
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Pirates favored ↑50%Nationals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Nick Gonzales singles on a ground ball to shortstop CJ Abrams. Ryan O'Hearn scores. Marcell Ozuna to 2nd. (inning 1) — +9% Pirates
1Nick Gonzales singles on a ground ball to shortstop CJ Abrams. Ryan O'Hearn scores. Marcell Ozuna to 2nd.0–2
1Marcell Ozuna singles on a line drive to right fielder James Wood. Bryan Reynolds scores. Ryan O'Hearn to 3rd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
