Rays at Pirates
Last play · Cedric Mullins pops out to first baseman Ryan O'Hearn in foul territory.
Win probability
Pirates100%
TB 0%PIT 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTB 0 – 1 PIT
Pirates led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8 ↑
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+100 / -120
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Pirates favored ↑50%Rays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Oneil Cruz homers (6) on a fly ball to right center field. Konnor Griffin scores. (inning 6) — +31% Pirates
8Brandon Lowe doubles (4) on a sharp fly ball to center fielder Cedric Mullins. Billy Cook scores. Konnor Griffin scores.1–5
6Oneil Cruz homers (6) on a fly ball to right center field. Konnor Griffin scores.1–3
6Junior Caminero singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Oneil Cruz. Chandler Simpson scores.1–1
2Spencer Horwitz doubles (2) on a line drive to right fielder Jake Fraley. Marcell Ozuna scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
