Cardinals at Pirates
Last play · Konnor Griffin flies out to center fielder Victor Scott II.
Win probability
Pirates0%
STL 100%PIT 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSTL 0 – 2 PIT
Pirates led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-102 / -118
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Pirates favored ↑50%Cardinals favored ↓
Biggest swing · José Fermín doubles (2) on a line drive to left fielder Jake Mangum. Victor Scott II scores. Alec Burleson scores. Jordan Walker to 3rd. (inning 9) — -41% Cardinals
9José Fermín doubles (2) on a line drive to left fielder Jake Mangum. Victor Scott II scores. Alec Burleson scores. Jordan Walker to 3rd.4–2
9JJ Wetherholt homers (6) on a fly ball to right center field.2–2
9Pedro Pagés homers (3) on a fly ball to left field.1–2
2Jake Mangum singles on a ground ball to right fielder Jordan Walker. Nick Gonzales scores.0–2
1Ryan O'Hearn singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Jordan Walker. Brandon Lowe scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
