Rays at Pirates
Last play · Joey Bart strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Pirates0%
TB 100%PIT 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalTB 5 – 4 PIT
Rays led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7 ↑
fair over 48.3% · hold 4.6%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+133 / -161
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Pirates favored ↑50%Rays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Cedric Mullins homers (2) on a fly ball to right center field. Jonny DeLuca scores. (inning 13) — -61% Rays
13Konnor Griffin singles on a ground ball to right fielder Jonny DeLuca. Jake Mangum scores. Spencer Horwitz to 3rd.8–7
13Cedric Mullins homers (2) on a fly ball to right center field. Jonny DeLuca scores.8–6
11Konnor Griffin reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by second baseman Ben Williamson. Nick Yorke scores.6–6
11Chandler Simpson singles on a ground ball to second baseman Brandon Lowe.6–5
8Nick Yorke singles on a line drive to right fielder Jonny DeLuca. Brandon Lowe scores. Billy Cook to 3rd.5–5
5Cedric Mullins singles on a ground ball to center fielder Oneil Cruz. Jonny DeLuca scores.5–4
5Jonny DeLuca doubles (3) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Oneil Cruz. Jonathan Aranda scores. Yandy Díaz scores.4–4
5Jonathan Aranda singles on a ground ball to center fielder Oneil Cruz. Junior Caminero scores.2–4
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
