Cardinals at Pirates
Last play · Nick Gonzales flies out to left fielder Nathan Church.
Win probability
Pirates0%
STL 100%PIT 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSTL 3 – 1 PIT
Cardinals led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+114 / -137
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Pirates favored ↑50%Cardinals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Alec Burleson homers (4) on a fly ball to left center field. Iván Herrera scores. (inning 5) — -21% Cardinals
8Oneil Cruz grounds into a force out, second baseman JJ Wetherholt to shortstop Masyn Winn. Nick Gonzales scores. Billy Cook to 3rd. Jake Mangum out at 2nd. Oneil Cruz to 1st.5–4
7Nick Yorke singles on a line drive to center fielder Victor Scott II. Konnor Griffin scores. Joey Bart scores. Oneil Cruz to 3rd.5–3
7Jordan Walker singles on a ground ball to left fielder Bryan Reynolds. Iván Herrera scores. Jordan Walker to 2nd.5–1
7Iván Herrera singles on a ground ball to shortstop Konnor Griffin, deflected by second baseman Brandon Lowe. Victor Scott II scores.4–1
5Spencer Horwitz homers (3) on a fly ball to center field.3–1
5Alec Burleson homers (4) on a fly ball to left center field. Iván Herrera scores.3–0
3JJ Wetherholt doubles (4) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Bryan Reynolds. Ramón Urías scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
