Cardinals at Pirates
Last play · Ryan O'Hearn lines out to left fielder Nathan Church.
Win probability
Pirates0%
STL 100%PIT 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSTL 5 – 3 PIT
Cardinals led after 5
Total runs
7
opened 7.5 ↓
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+189 / -232
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Pirates favored ↑50%Cardinals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Nathan Church doubles (2) on a sharp fly ball to center fielder Oneil Cruz. Nolan Gorman scores. Masyn Winn scores. (inning 8) — -21% Cardinals
9Brandon Lowe doubles (8) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Jordan Walker. Oneil Cruz scores. Throwing error by right fielder Jordan Walker.10–5
8Jordan Walker singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Jake Mangum. Iván Herrera scores. Alec Burleson to 2nd.10–4
8Alec Burleson singles on a line drive to right fielder Bryan Reynolds. Nathan Church scores. Victor Scott II scores. Iván Herrera to 3rd.9–4
8Nathan Church doubles (2) on a sharp fly ball to center fielder Oneil Cruz. Nolan Gorman scores. Masyn Winn scores.7–4
7Brandon Lowe homers (8) on a fly ball to right field.5–4
5Bryan Reynolds doubles (4) on a fly ball to left fielder Nathan Church. Jake Mangum scores. Oneil Cruz scores.5–3
5Alec Burleson singles on a line drive to left fielder Jake Mangum. JJ Wetherholt scores.5–1
4Spencer Horwitz walks. Bryan Reynolds scores. Ryan O'Hearn to 3rd. Nick Gonzales to 2nd.4–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
