Cardinals at Pirates
STL11–
PIT7Last play · Oneil Cruz strikes out on a foul tip.
Win probability
Pirates0%
STL 100%PIT 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSTL 6 – 0 PIT
Cardinals led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8 ↑
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+133 / -161
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Pirates favored ↑50%Cardinals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Nolan Gorman homers (4) on a fly ball to right field. (inning 2) — -20% Cardinals
9Konnor Griffin homers (2) on a fly ball to right center field.11–7
8Nick Gonzales singles on a ground ball to center fielder Victor Scott II. Bryan Reynolds scores. Ryan O'Hearn scores.11–6
8Ryan O'Hearn singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Jordan Walker. Oneil Cruz scores. Bryan Reynolds to 2nd.11–4
8Alec Burleson doubles (8) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Ryan O'Hearn. JJ Wetherholt scores. Iván Herrera scores.11–3
7Masyn Winn singles on a fly ball to right fielder Ryan O'Hearn. Jordan Walker scores.9–3
7Nolan Gorman grounds out, first baseman Spencer Horwitz to pitcher Hunter Barco. Alec Burleson scores. Jordan Walker to 2nd.8–3
7Jordan Walker singles on a ground ball to center fielder Oneil Cruz. Iván Herrera scores. Alec Burleson to 3rd.7–3
6Ryan O'Hearn homers (5) on a fly ball to right center field. Bryan Reynolds scores.6–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.