Reds at Pirates
Last play · Rece Hinds strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Pirates100%
CIN 0%PIT 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCIN 0 – 8 PIT
Pirates led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 51.7% · hold 4.6%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+117 / -141
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Pirates favored ↑50%Reds favored ↓
Biggest swing · Bryan Reynolds triples (2) on a line drive to center fielder TJ Friedl. Henry Davis scores. (inning 3) — +12% Pirates
6Konnor Griffin walks. Ryan O'Hearn scores. Nick Gonzales to 3rd. Spencer Horwitz to 2nd.1–9
6Elly De La Cruz grounds out, second baseman Brandon Lowe to first baseman Spencer Horwitz. TJ Friedl scores.1–8
5Henry Davis homers (2) on a line drive to left field. Konnor Griffin scores.0–8
5Marcell Ozuna homers (3) on a fly ball to center field. Nick Gonzales scores.0–6
4Henry Davis homers (1) on a fly ball to center field.0–4
3Ryan O'Hearn singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Spencer Steer. Bryan Reynolds scores.0–3
3Bryan Reynolds triples (2) on a line drive to center fielder TJ Friedl. Henry Davis scores.0–2
1Bryan Reynolds homers (4) on a fly ball to center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
