Reds at Pirates
CIN7–
PIT17Last play · Sal Stewart flies out to center fielder Oneil Cruz.
Win probability
Pirates100%
CIN 0%PIT 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCIN 4 – 15 PIT
Pirates led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+117 / -141
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Pirates favored ↑50%Reds favored ↓
Biggest swing · Nathaniel Lowe hits a ground-rule double (5) on a fly ball to left field. JJ Bleday scores. Elly De La Cruz scores. (inning 1) — -21% Reds
8Spencer Horwitz doubles (3) on a fly ball to center fielder Will Benson. Marcell Ozuna scores.7–17
8Marcell Ozuna singles on a fly ball to center fielder Will Benson. Jake Mangum scores. Marcell Ozuna to 2nd.7–16
8Ke'Bryan Hayes grounds into a double play, shortstop Konnor Griffin to second baseman Nick Gonzales to first baseman Spencer Horwitz. Will Benson scores. Tyler Stephenson out at 2nd. Ke'Bryan Hayes out at 1st.7–15
6JJ Bleday homers (2) on a fly ball to right field. TJ Friedl scores.6–15
5Nathaniel Lowe singles on a ground ball to right fielder Ryan O'Hearn. JJ Bleday scores.4–15
4Spencer Horwitz singles on a line drive to center fielder TJ Friedl. Ryan O'Hearn scores. Marcell Ozuna to 2nd.3–15
4Ryan O'Hearn singles on a fly ball to right fielder Will Benson. Brandon Lowe scores. Bryan Reynolds scores.3–14
4Bryan Reynolds doubles (5) on a line drive to right fielder Will Benson. Oneil Cruz scores. Brandon Lowe to 3rd.3–12
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.