Reds at Pirates
Last play · Sal Stewart flies out sharply to left fielder Jake Mangum.
Win probability
Pirates100%
CIN 0%PIT 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCIN 0 – 0 PIT
Tied through 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 49.6% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+105 / -126
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Pirates favored ↑50%Reds favored ↓
Biggest swing · Oneil Cruz singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder TJ Friedl. Konnor Griffin scores. Jake Mangum to 2nd. (inning 8) — +29% Pirates
8Oneil Cruz singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder TJ Friedl. Konnor Griffin scores. Jake Mangum to 2nd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
