Rockies at Pirates
Last play · Spencer Horwitz grounds out, pitcher Brennan Bernardino to first baseman TJ Rumfield.
Win probability
Pirates0%
COL 100%PIT 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCOL 6 – 3 PIT
Rockies led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8 ↑
fair over 48% · hold 4.6%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+153 / -186
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Pirates favored ↑50%Rockies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Mickey Moniak homers (12) on a fly ball to right field. Ezequiel Tovar scores. Brett Sullivan scores. (inning 5) — -36% Rockies
9Mickey Moniak triples (2) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Oneil Cruz. Ezequiel Tovar scores. Willi Castro scores.10–4
9Brett Sullivan reaches on a fielder's choice. Brenton Doyle scores. Ezequiel Tovar to 2nd. Throwing error by pitcher Justin Lawrence.8–4
8TJ Rumfield homers (6) on a fly ball to right center field.7–4
6Ryan O'Hearn homers (6) on a fly ball to right center field.6–4
5Mickey Moniak homers (12) on a fly ball to right field. Ezequiel Tovar scores. Brett Sullivan scores.6–3
5Ezequiel Tovar singles on a line drive to right fielder Ryan O'Hearn. Kyle Karros scores. Jake McCarthy to 3rd.3–3
5Jake McCarthy doubles (7) on a line drive to right fielder Ryan O'Hearn. Troy Johnston scores. Kyle Karros to 3rd.2–3
5Kyle Karros singles on a line drive to left fielder Bryan Reynolds. TJ Rumfield scores. Troy Johnston to 3rd.1–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
