Rockies at Pirates
Last play · TJ Rumfield grounds out, second baseman Brandon Lowe to first baseman Ryan O'Hearn.
Win probability
Pirates100%
COL 0%PIT 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCOL 0 – 2 PIT
Pirates led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 50.4% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+238 / -299
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Pirates favored ↑50%Rockies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Brandon Lowe singles on a line drive to right fielder Tyler Freeman. Oneil Cruz scores. (inning 5) — +10% Pirates
9Hunter Goodman doubles (8) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Oneil Cruz. Jordan Beck scores.1–3
7Bryan Reynolds singles on a ground ball to second baseman Edouard Julien. Konnor Griffin scores. Henry Davis to 3rd. Oneil Cruz to 2nd.0–3
5Brandon Lowe singles on a line drive to right fielder Tyler Freeman. Oneil Cruz scores.0–2
1Nick Gonzales singles on a ground ball to right fielder Tyler Freeman. Oneil Cruz scores. Ryan O'Hearn to 2nd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
