We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Pirates favored ↑50%Phillies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Umpire reviewed (home run), call on the field was upheld: Phillies challenged (tag play), call on the field was upheld: Bryce Harper singles on a fly ball to center fielder Oneil Cruz. Adolis García scores. Trea Turner scores. Kyle Schwarber out at 3rd on the throw, center fielder Oneil Cruz to pitcher Gregory Soto to third baseman Jared Triolo. Bryce Harper to 2nd. (inning 9) — -44% Phillies
10Konnor Griffin grounds out, third baseman Alec Bohm to first baseman Bryce Harper. Ryan O'Hearn scores. Marcell Ozuna to 3rd.11–9
10Rafael Marchán singles on a line drive to center fielder Oneil Cruz. Brandon Marsh scores. Bryson Stott scores.11–8
10Brandon Marsh doubles (8) on a fly ball to right fielder Bryan Reynolds. Alec Bohm scores.9–8
9Umpire reviewed (home run), call on the field was upheld: Phillies challenged (tag play), call on the field was upheld: Bryce Harper singles on a fly ball to center fielder Oneil Cruz. Adolis García scores. Trea Turner scores. Kyle Schwarber out at 3rd on the throw, center fielder Oneil Cruz to pitcher Gregory Soto to third baseman Jared Triolo. Bryce Harper to 2nd.8–8
9Gregory Soto challenged (pitch result), call on the field was confirmed: Kyle Schwarber walks. Edmundo Sosa scores. Adolis García to 3rd. Trea Turner to 2nd.6–8
7Kyle Schwarber homers (20) on a fly ball to center field. Trea Turner scores.5–8
6Jared Triolo reaches on a fielding error by third baseman Alec Bohm. Spencer Horwitz scores.3–8
5Brandon Lowe homers (12) on a fly ball to right center field.3–7
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
PHI11–
PIT9