Rockies at Pirates
Last play · Mickey Moniak grounds into a double play, first baseman Ryan O'Hearn to shortstop Konnor Griffin to first baseman Ryan O'Hearn. TJ Rumfield out at 2nd. Mickey Moniak out at 1st.
Win probability
Pirates100%
COL 0%PIT 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCOL 2 – 7 PIT
Pirates led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8 ↓
fair over 51.7% · hold 4.6%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+148 / -180
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Pirates favored ↑50%Rockies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ryan O'Hearn homers (7) on a fly ball to center field. Bryan Reynolds scores. (inning 1) — +16% Pirates
5Jared Triolo singles on a ground ball to center fielder Brenton Doyle. Spencer Horwitz scores. Endy Rodríguez to 2nd.2–7
4Troy Johnston doubles (12) on a fly ball to right fielder Ryan O'Hearn. TJ Rumfield scores. Willi Castro scores.2–6
3Oneil Cruz grounds out, shortstop Ezequiel Tovar to first baseman TJ Rumfield. Marcell Ozuna scores. Endy Rodríguez to 3rd. Jared Triolo to 2nd.0–6
3Endy Rodríguez singles on a line drive to center fielder Brenton Doyle. Ryan O'Hearn scores. Konnor Griffin scores. Marcell Ozuna to 2nd.0–5
1Ryan O'Hearn homers (7) on a fly ball to center field. Bryan Reynolds scores.0–3
1Bryan Reynolds singles on a line drive to left fielder Jordan Beck. Oneil Cruz scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
