Phillies at Pirates
Last play · Nick Yorke grounds out, shortstop Trea Turner to first baseman Bryce Harper.
Win probability
Pirates0%
PHI 100%PIT 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalPHI 5 – 0 PIT
Phillies led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 49.6% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-171 / +141
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Pirates favored ↑50%Phillies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Bryce Harper homers (11) on a fly ball to center field. Trea Turner scores. Kyle Schwarber scores. (inning 1) — -28% Phillies
8Trea Turner doubles (8) on a line drive to right fielder Nick Yorke. Justin Crawford scores.6–0
2Kyle Schwarber doubles (8) on a ground ball to right fielder Jared Triolo. J.T. Realmuto scores. Trea Turner scores. Throwing error by right fielder Jared Triolo.5–0
1Bryce Harper homers (11) on a fly ball to center field. Trea Turner scores. Kyle Schwarber scores.3–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
