Phillies at Pirates
Last play · Spencer Horwitz pops out to third baseman Alec Bohm.
Win probability
Pirates0%
PHI 100%PIT 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalPHI 2 – 0 PIT
Phillies led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7 ↑
fair over 47.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+108 / -131
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Pirates favored ↑50%Phillies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Bryce Harper homers (12) on a fly ball to center field. (inning 6) — -17% Phillies
8Bryson Stott homers (4) on a line drive to right field.6–0
6Bryson Stott doubles (7) on a fly ball to right fielder Jared Triolo. Alec Bohm scores. Brandon Marsh scores. Adolis García to 3rd.5–0
6Bryce Harper homers (12) on a fly ball to center field.3–0
5Trea Turner singles on a ground ball to right fielder Jared Triolo. J.T. Realmuto scores.2–0
5Justin Crawford grounds out, shortstop Konnor Griffin to first baseman Spencer Horwitz. Adolis García scores. J.T. Realmuto to 2nd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
