Cubs at Pirates
Last play · Michael Busch flies out to center fielder Jhostynxon Garcia.
Win probability
Pirates100%
CHC 0%PIT 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCHC 1 – 8 PIT
Pirates led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 51.7% · hold 4.6%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+114 / -137
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Pirates favored ↑50%Cubs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Bryan Reynolds doubles (9) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Ian Happ. Konnor Griffin scores. Brandon Lowe scores. (inning 1) — +17% Pirates
8Marcell Ozuna singles on a line drive to center fielder Kevin Alcántara. Nick Gonzales scores.1–12
8Jake Mangum grounds out, third baseman Pedro Ramírez to first baseman Michael Busch. Jared Triolo scores.1–11
7Spencer Horwitz homers (6) on a fly ball to right field.1–10
6Bryan Reynolds reaches on a throwing error by third baseman Alex Bregman. Konnor Griffin scores. Bryan Reynolds to 2nd.1–9
5Spencer Horwitz out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. Nick Gonzales scores. Oneil Cruz to 3rd. Esmerlyn Valdez to 2nd.1–8
5Esmerlyn Valdez walks. Bryan Reynolds scores. Nick Gonzales to 3rd. Oneil Cruz to 2nd.1–7
5Nick Gonzales singles on a line drive to right fielder Seiya Suzuki. Brandon Lowe scores. Bryan Reynolds to 3rd.1–6
2Ian Happ doubles (8) on a sharp fly ball to center fielder Oneil Cruz. Alex Bregman scores.1–5
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
