Twins at Pirates
Last play · Bryan Reynolds homers (6) on a fly ball to left field. Tyler Callihan scores.
Win probability
Pirates100%
MIN 0%PIT 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIN 5 – 4 PIT
Twins led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 50.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+114 / -137
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Pirates favored ↑50%Twins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Bryan Reynolds homers (6) on a fly ball to left field. Tyler Callihan scores. (inning 9) — +55% Pirates
9Bryan Reynolds homers (6) on a fly ball to left field. Tyler Callihan scores.5–6
3Oneil Cruz homers (12) on a fly ball to right field.5–4
3Trevor Larnach homers (3) on a fly ball to right field. Josh Bell scores.5–3
2Tristan Gray singles on a ground ball to center fielder Oneil Cruz. Trevor Larnach scores. Austin Martin scores. Victor Caratini to 2nd.3–3
1Konnor Griffin singles on a line drive to center fielder Kody Clemens. Nick Gonzales scores.1–3
1Oneil Cruz grounds out to first baseman Josh Bell. Bryan Reynolds scores. Nick Gonzales to 3rd.1–2
1Nick Gonzales singles on a soft ground ball to third baseman Brooks Lee. Brandon Lowe scores. Bryan Reynolds to 3rd. Nick Gonzales to 2nd. Throwing error by third baseman Brooks Lee.1–1
1Kody Clemens homers (6) on a fly ball to right field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
