Twins at Pirates
MIN9–
PIT10Last play · Luke Keaschall flies out to right fielder Bryan Reynolds.
Win probability
Pirates100%
MIN 0%PIT 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIN 7 – 8 PIT
Pirates led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 49.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+128 / -154
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Pirates favored ↑50%Twins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Josh Bell doubles (10) on a line drive to left fielder Jake Mangum. Tristan Gray scores. Byron Buxton scores. (inning 4) — -19% Twins
8Josh Bell grounds out to first baseman Spencer Horwitz. Ryan Kreidler scores. Byron Buxton to 3rd. Brooks Lee to 2nd.9–10
8Brooks Lee walks. Luke Keaschall scores. Ryan Kreidler to 3rd. Byron Buxton to 2nd.8–10
7Bryan Reynolds out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Austin Martin. Jake Mangum scores. Jared Triolo to 3rd.7–10
7Jared Triolo singles on a fly ball to right fielder Austin Martin. Endy Rodríguez scores. Jake Mangum to 3rd.7–9
5Jake Mangum singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Trevor Larnach. Konnor Griffin scores. Endy Rodríguez to 3rd.7–8
4Kody Clemens singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Bryan Reynolds. Josh Bell scores.7–7
4Josh Bell doubles (10) on a line drive to left fielder Jake Mangum. Tristan Gray scores. Byron Buxton scores.6–7
4Tristan Gray doubles (3) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Oneil Cruz. Orlando Arcia scores. Luke Keaschall scores.4–7
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.