Dodgers at Pirates
LAD12–
PIT3Last play · Jake Mangum grounds out, second baseman Alex Freeland to first baseman Miguel Rojas.
Win probability
Pirates0%
LAD 100%PIT 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalLAD 1 – 2 PIT
Pirates led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 49.7% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+100 / -121
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Pirates favored ↑50%Dodgers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Shohei Ohtani doubles (15) on a line drive to center fielder Jake Mangum. Alex Freeland scores. (inning 7) — -31% Dodgers
9Marcell Ozuna singles on a line drive to left fielder Ryan Ward. Bryan Reynolds scores.12–3
7Freddie Freeman singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Jake Mangum. Alex Freeland scores. Shohei Ohtani to 3rd.12–2
7Andy Pages out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Ryan O'Hearn. Ryan Ward scores. Alex Freeland to 3rd.11–2
7Shohei Ohtani walks. Kyle Tucker scores. Ryan Ward to 3rd. Alex Freeland to 2nd.10–2
7Alex Freeland walks. Max Muncy scores. Kyle Tucker to 3rd. Ryan Ward to 2nd.9–2
7Ryan Ward singles on a ground ball to right fielder Ryan O'Hearn. Mookie Betts scores. Max Muncy to 3rd. Kyle Tucker to 2nd.8–2
7Kyle Tucker reaches on a fielder's choice. Freddie Freeman scores. Mookie Betts to 3rd. Max Muncy to 2nd. Throwing error by second baseman Brandon Lowe.7–2
7Andy Pages homers (15) on a fly ball to left field. Shohei Ohtani scores.6–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.