Twins at Pirates
MIN3–
PIT9Last play · Trevor Larnach flies out to right fielder Jake Mangum.
Win probability
Pirates100%
MIN 0%PIT 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIN 0 – 9 PIT
Pirates led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 49% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+139 / -168
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Pirates favored ↑50%Twins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ryan O'Hearn homers (8) on a fly ball to right field. (inning 2) — +15% Pirates
9Brooks Lee homers (8) on a fly ball to right field.3–9
6Brooks Lee homers (7) on a fly ball to right field. Alex Jackson scores.2–9
5Henry Davis singles on a line drive to left fielder Trevor Larnach. Nick Gonzales scores. Oneil Cruz scores. Jared Triolo to 2nd.0–9
5Jake Mangum out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Kody Clemens. Bryan Reynolds scores.0–7
5Oneil Cruz walks. Brandon Lowe scores. Bryan Reynolds to 3rd. Nick Gonzales to 2nd.0–6
5Brandon Lowe singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Austin Martin. Spencer Horwitz scores.0–5
3Nick Gonzales homers (1) on a fly ball to center field. Bryan Reynolds scores.0–4
2Jared Triolo singles on a line drive to right fielder Austin Martin. Oneil Cruz scores. Jake Mangum to 3rd.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.