Dodgers at Pirates
LAD8–
PIT6Last play · Spencer Horwitz called out on strikes.
Win probability
Pirates0%
LAD 100%PIT 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalLAD 5 – 4 PIT
Dodgers led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 51.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-200 / +164
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Pirates favored ↑50%Dodgers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Kyle Tucker singles on a fly ball to left fielder Bryan Reynolds. Andy Pages scores. Freddie Freeman scores. Max Muncy to 3rd. (inning 3) — -21% Dodgers
8Rafael Flores Jr. doubles (1) on a fly ball to right fielder Kyle Tucker. Jake Mangum scores.8–6
8Jake Mangum doubles (5) on a line drive to center fielder Andy Pages. Tyler Callihan scores.8–5
8Miguel Rojas out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Bryan Reynolds. Kyle Tucker scores.8–4
7Andy Pages pops out to shortstop Jared Triolo.7–4
7Miguel Rojas reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by second baseman Brandon Lowe. Alex Call scores.6–4
5Spencer Horwitz singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Kyle Tucker. Bryan Reynolds scores. Ryan O'Hearn to 3rd.5–4
5Brandon Lowe homers (16) on a fly ball to right field. Nick Gonzales scores.5–3
5Rafael Flores Jr. homers (1) on a fly ball to center field.5–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.