Marlins at Pirates
Last play · Endy Rodríguez strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Pirates0%
MIA 100%PIT 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIA 2 – 2 PIT
Tied through 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8 ↑
fair over 52.3% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+119 / -143
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Pirates favored ↑50%Marlins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Endy Rodríguez homers (2) on a line drive to right center field. (inning 5) — +22% Pirates
8Brandon Lowe homers (17) on a fly ball to center field.8–3
8Liam Hicks homers (13) on a fly ball to right field. Javier Sanoja scores.8–2
7Owen Caissie doubles (10) on a sharp fly ball to center fielder Jake Mangum. Kyle Stowers scores. Heriberto Hernández scores.6–2
7Heriberto Hernández singles on a line drive to left fielder Tyler Callihan, deflected by third baseman Nick Gonzales. Otto Lopez scores. Kyle Stowers to 2nd.4–2
7Xavier Edwards out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Jake Mangum. Liam Hicks scores.3–2
5Endy Rodríguez homers (2) on a line drive to right center field.2–2
5Kyle Stowers singles on a line drive to right fielder Ryan O'Hearn. Liam Hicks scores.2–1
5Otto Lopez grounds out, shortstop Jared Triolo to first baseman Spencer Horwitz. Javier Sanoja scores. Liam Hicks to 3rd.1–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
