Marlins at Pirates
Last play · Ryan O'Hearn lines out sharply to center fielder Jakob Marsee.
Win probability
Pirates0%
MIA 100%PIT 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIA 2 – 1 PIT
Marlins led after 5
Total runs
7
opened 7.5 ↓
fair over 52.1% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+135 / -164
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Pirates favored ↑50%Marlins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Heriberto Hernández homers (6) on a fly ball to left center field. (inning 2) — -20% Marlins
9Bryan Reynolds homers (8) on a fly ball to center field.4–2
8Xavier Edwards singles on a line drive to center fielder Jake Mangum. Otto Lopez scores. Kyle Stowers to 2nd.4–1
8Kyle Stowers singles on a ground ball to center fielder Jake Mangum, deflected by second baseman Brandon Lowe. Liam Hicks scores. Otto Lopez to 3rd.3–1
4Jake Mangum singles on a line drive to center fielder Jakob Marsee. Nick Gonzales scores. Tyler Callihan to 2nd.2–1
2Joe Mack homers (2) on a fly ball to center field.2–0
2Heriberto Hernández homers (6) on a fly ball to left center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
