Mariners at Pirates
Last play · Luke Raley strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Pirates100%
SEA 0%PIT 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSEA 1 – 5 PIT
Pirates led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 7 ↑
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-105 / -115
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Pirates favored ↑50%Mariners favored ↓
Biggest swing · Endy Rodríguez doubles (5) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Luke Raley. Nick Gonzales scores. Ryan O'Hearn scores. (inning 4) — +29% Pirates
8Ryan O'Hearn doubles (11) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Luke Raley. Billy Cook scores.1–11
8Bryan Reynolds doubles (19) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Julio Rodríguez. Esmerlyn Valdez scores.1–10
7Tyler Callihan out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Randy Arozarena. Ryan O'Hearn scores.1–9
7Endy Rodríguez singles on a ground ball to right fielder Luke Raley. Nick Gonzales scores. Ryan O'Hearn to 3rd.1–8
7Ryan O'Hearn doubles (10) on a line drive to right fielder Luke Raley. Brandon Lowe scores. Bryan Reynolds scores. Nick Gonzales to 3rd.1–7
4Esmerlyn Valdez singles on a sharp fly ball to center fielder Julio Rodríguez. Jake Mangum scores.1–5
4Jake Mangum singles on a ground ball to left fielder Randy Arozarena. Tyler Callihan scores.1–4
4Tyler Callihan triples (2) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Luke Raley. Endy Rodríguez scores.1–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
