Mariners at Pirates
Last play · Julio Rodríguez flies out to center fielder Billy Cook.
Win probability
Pirates100%
SEA 0%PIT 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSEA 1 – 3 PIT
Pirates led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-144 / +119
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Pirates favored ↑50%Mariners favored ↓
Biggest swing · Henry Davis homers (6) on a fly ball to right center field. Jared Triolo scores. (inning 3) — +17% Pirates
8Ryan O'Hearn singles on a line drive to right fielder Victor Robles. Bryan Reynolds scores. Nick Gonzales to 3rd.1–5
8Brandon Lowe singles on a line drive to center fielder Julio Rodríguez. Henry Davis scores.1–4
5J.P. Crawford singles on a ground ball to right fielder Esmerlyn Valdez. Mitch Garver scores. Colt Emerson to 3rd.1–3
3Henry Davis homers (6) on a fly ball to right center field. Jared Triolo scores.0–3
1Brandon Lowe homers (19) on a fly ball to right center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
