Mariners at Pirates
Last play · Brandon Lowe strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Pirates0%
SEA 100%PIT 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSEA 1 – 2 PIT
Pirates led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 8 ↑
fair over 48.3% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-131 / +108
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Pirates favored ↑50%Mariners favored ↓
Biggest swing · Cole Young homers (7) on a fly ball to right field. Luke Raley scores. (inning 7) — -41% Mariners
7Cole Young homers (7) on a fly ball to right field. Luke Raley scores.3–2
4Cal Raleigh homers (8) on a fly ball to right center field.1–2
3Nick Gonzales singles on a ground ball to third baseman J.P. Crawford. Brandon Lowe scores. Bryan Reynolds to 3rd. Throwing error by third baseman J.P. Crawford.0–2
2Marcell Ozuna singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Julio Rodríguez. Endy Rodríguez scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
