Reds at Pirates
Last play · Ryan O'Hearn lines out to first baseman Spencer Steer.
Win probability
Pirates0%
CIN 100%PIT 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCIN 4 – 4 PIT
Tied through 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 49.6% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-112 / -108
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Pirates favored ↑50%Reds favored ↓
Biggest swing · Eugenio Suárez homers (8) on a fly ball to right field. Edwin Arroyo scores. JJ Bleday scores. (inning 9) — -78% Reds
9Eugenio Suárez homers (8) on a fly ball to right field. Edwin Arroyo scores. JJ Bleday scores.9–7
8Esmerlyn Valdez homers (4) on a fly ball to right center field.6–7
7Ryan O'Hearn singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Noelvi Marte. Bryan Reynolds scores. Nick Gonzales to 3rd.6–6
7Brandon Lowe out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Dane Myers. Jared Triolo scores.6–5
6Jose Trevino singles on a ground ball to right fielder Tyler Callihan. Spencer Steer scores. Noelvi Marte scores. Dane Myers to 3rd.6–4
5Sal Stewart reaches on a fielding error by second baseman Brandon Lowe. Edwin Arroyo scores.4–4
5Edwin Arroyo doubles (3) on a line drive to left fielder Bryan Reynolds. Dane Myers scores.3–4
4Jared Triolo singles on a line drive to left fielder JJ Bleday. Endy Rodríguez scores.2–4
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
