Reds at Pirates
Last play · Bryan Reynolds lines out sharply to right fielder Spencer Steer.
Win probability
Pirates0%
CIN 100%PIT 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCIN 4 – 2 PIT
Reds led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 51% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+149 / -181
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Pirates favored ↑50%Reds favored ↓
Biggest swing · Noelvi Marte homers (4) on a line drive to left center field. Sal Stewart scores. (inning 8) — -39% Reds
8Noelvi Marte homers (4) on a line drive to left center field. Sal Stewart scores.6–4
6Esmerlyn Valdez homers (3) on a fly ball to left field.4–4
6Marcell Ozuna homers (7) on a fly ball to center field.4–3
5Brandon Lowe out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Blake Dunn. Henry Davis scores.4–2
2Elly De La Cruz out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Jake Mangum. Tyler Stephenson scores. Matt McLain to 3rd.4–1
2Blake Dunn out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Esmerlyn Valdez. Spencer Steer scores. Tyler Stephenson to 3rd. Matt McLain to 2nd.3–1
2Tyler Stephenson singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Esmerlyn Valdez. Eugenio Suárez scores. Spencer Steer to 3rd.2–1
2Spencer Steer singles on a line drive to center fielder Jake Mangum. Nathaniel Lowe scores. Eugenio Suárez to 2nd.1–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
