Reds at Pirates
Last play · Sal Stewart grounds into a force out, shortstop Konnor Griffin to second baseman Brandon Lowe. Elly De La Cruz out at 2nd.
Win probability
Pirates100%
CIN 0%PIT 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCIN 4 – 5 PIT
Pirates led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 9.5 ↓
fair over 50.2% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+117 / -141
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Pirates favored ↑50%Reds favored ↓
Biggest swing · Tyler Callihan homers (3) on a fly ball to right field. Ryan O'Hearn scores. Esmerlyn Valdez scores. (inning 2) — +21% Pirates
8Esmerlyn Valdez homers (5) on a fly ball to left center field.4–9
8Ryan O'Hearn homers (13) on a fly ball to right center field. Bryan Reynolds scores. Nick Gonzales scores.4–8
5Ryan O'Hearn homers (12) on a fly ball to right field.4–5
5Edwin Arroyo singles on a line drive to right fielder Esmerlyn Valdez. Tyler Stephenson scores.4–4
5Tyler Stephenson doubles (8) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Tyler Callihan. Noelvi Marte scores.3–4
4JJ Bleday singles on a line drive to center fielder Jake Mangum. Elly De La Cruz scores. Sal Stewart scores.2–4
2Tyler Callihan homers (3) on a fly ball to right field. Ryan O'Hearn scores. Esmerlyn Valdez scores.0–4
2Esmerlyn Valdez hits a ground-rule double (3) on a fly ball to left field. Nick Gonzales scores. Ryan O'Hearn to 3rd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
