Braves at Pirates
Last play · Michael Harris II pops out to shortstop Jared Triolo.
Win probability
Pirates100%
ATL 0%PIT 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalATL 2 – 7 PIT
Pirates led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8 ↑
fair over 49.5% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+124 / -149
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Pirates favored ↑50%Braves favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ryan O'Hearn hits a grand slam (14) to right center field. Jake Mangum scores. Brandon Lowe scores. Bryan Reynolds scores. (inning 1) — +38% Pirates
9Mike Yastrzemski singles on a line drive to right fielder Esmerlyn Valdez. Dominic Smith scores. Austin Riley scores.4–12
8Nick Gonzales singles on a line drive to left fielder José Azócar. Esmerlyn Valdez scores. Billy Cook to 2nd.2–12
7Brandon Lowe singles on a sharp ground ball to center fielder Michael Harris II. Tyler Callihan scores. Jared Triolo to 2nd.2–11
6Ryan O'Hearn homers (16) on a fly ball to right field. Jake Mangum scores. Brandon Lowe scores.2–10
3Ryan O'Hearn homers (15) on a fly ball to center field. Bryan Reynolds scores. Esmerlyn Valdez scores.2–7
3Ozzie Albies singles on a line drive to center fielder Jake Mangum. Michael Harris II scores.2–4
1Ryan O'Hearn hits a grand slam (14) to right center field. Jake Mangum scores. Brandon Lowe scores. Bryan Reynolds scores.1–4
1Mauricio Dubón singles on a line drive to right fielder Esmerlyn Valdez. Matt Olson scores. Drake Baldwin to 2nd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
