Braves at Pirates
Last play · Marcell Ozuna called out on strikes.
Win probability
Pirates0%
ATL 100%PIT 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalATL 0 – 0 PIT
Tied through 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 47.9% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+102 / -123
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Pirates favored ↑50%Braves favored ↓
Biggest swing · Joey Bart homers (4) on a fly ball to left center field. Mike Yastrzemski scores. (inning 8) — -39% Braves
9Drake Baldwin singles on a line drive to center fielder Jake Mangum. Michael Harris II scores. Drake Baldwin to 2nd.3–0
8Joey Bart homers (4) on a fly ball to left center field. Mike Yastrzemski scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
