Braves at Pirates
ATL10–
PIT5Last play · Esmerlyn Valdez strikes out on a foul tip.
Win probability
Pirates0%
ATL 100%PIT 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalATL 6 – 4 PIT
Braves led after 5
Total runs
10
opened 9 ↑
fair over 48.7% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-110 / -110
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Pirates favored ↑50%Braves favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jake Mangum homers (2) on a fly ball to right field. Jared Triolo scores. (inning 4) — +21% Pirates
9Mike Yastrzemski hits a grand slam (6) to right field. Matt Olson scores. Drake Baldwin scores. Dominic Smith scores.10–5
6Jake Mangum doubles (10) on a line drive to right fielder Mike Yastrzemski. Nick Gonzales scores. Jared Triolo to 3rd.6–5
4Jake Mangum homers (2) on a fly ball to right field. Jared Triolo scores.6–4
4Drake Baldwin singles on a line drive to right fielder Esmerlyn Valdez. Ozzie Albies scores. Matt Olson to 3rd.6–2
4Jim Jarvis homers (1) on a fly ball to right field. Mike Yastrzemski scores.5–2
3Esmerlyn Valdez homers (7) on a fly ball to left field.3–2
3Bryan Reynolds homers (14) on a fly ball to right field.3–1
3Mauricio Dubón singles on a ground ball to right fielder Esmerlyn Valdez. Ozzie Albies scores.3–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.