Brewers at Pirates
MIL5–
PIT14Last play · Jackson Chourio grounds into a double play, shortstop Jared Triolo to second baseman Tyler Callihan to first baseman Jacob Gonzalez. Luis Lara out at 2nd. Jackson Chourio out at 1st.
Win probability
Pirates100%
MIL 0%PIT 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIL 2 – 14 PIT
Pirates led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 6.5 ↑
fair over 48.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+108 / -130
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Pirates favored ↑50%Brewers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Henry Davis homers (8) on a fly ball to left field. Marcell Ozuna scores. (inning 2) — +11% Pirates
8Garrett Mitchell doubles (20) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Jake Mangum. Jake Bauers scores. Gary Sánchez to 3rd.5–14
8Brice Turang homers (14) on a fly ball to right field. Jackson Chourio scores.4–14
4Jake Mangum triples (1) on a line drive to center fielder Garrett Mitchell. Henry Davis scores.2–14
4Jared Triolo singles on a ground ball to left fielder Jackson Chourio. Ryan O'Hearn scores. Nick Gonzales scores.2–13
4Nick Gonzales doubles (14) on a line drive to right fielder Sal Frelick. Bryan Reynolds scores. Esmerlyn Valdez scores. Ryan O'Hearn to 3rd.2–11
4Ryan O'Hearn singles on a line drive to center fielder Garrett Mitchell. Brandon Lowe scores. Bryan Reynolds to 3rd. Esmerlyn Valdez to 2nd.2–9
4Esmerlyn Valdez walks. Jake Mangum scores. Brandon Lowe to 3rd. Bryan Reynolds to 2nd.2–8
4Bryan Reynolds hit by pitch. Henry Davis scores. Jake Mangum to 3rd. Brandon Lowe to 2nd.2–7
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.