Brewers at Pirates
Last play · Andrew Vaughn grounds into a double play, third baseman Nick Gonzales to catcher Henry Davis. Christian Yelich out at home. Brice Turang out at 3rd.
Win probability
Pirates100%
MIL 0%PIT 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIL 5 – 3 PIT
Brewers led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8 ↑
fair over 50.1% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-103 / -117
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Pirates favored ↑50%Brewers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Esmerlyn Valdez hits a grand slam (9) to right field. Henry Davis scores. Jake Mangum scores. Brandon Lowe scores. (inning 7) — +70% Pirates
7Esmerlyn Valdez hits a grand slam (9) to right field. Henry Davis scores. Jake Mangum scores. Brandon Lowe scores.6–7
7William Contreras singles on a line drive to left fielder Tyler Callihan. Garrett Mitchell scores.6–3
5Sal Frelick homers (4) on a fly ball to right field. Cooper Pratt scores.5–3
5Cooper Pratt doubles (3) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Jake Mangum. Luis Lara scores.3–3
3Esmerlyn Valdez homers (8) on a fly ball to center field.2–3
2Jake Bauers homers (18) on a fly ball to right field. William Contreras scores.2–2
1Nick Gonzales reaches on a fielding error by third baseman Joey Ortiz. Bryan Reynolds scores. Esmerlyn Valdez to 3rd.0–2
1Esmerlyn Valdez singles on a ground ball to left fielder Luis Lara. Jake Mangum scores. Bryan Reynolds to 2nd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
