Brewers at Pirates
Last play · William Contreras called out on strikes.
Win probability
Pirates100%
MIL 0%PIT 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIL 2 – 2 PIT
Tied through 5
Total runs
9
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 51% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-148 / +123
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Stolen Bases Milestones, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Pirates favored ↑50%Brewers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Brice Turang doubles (23) on a fly ball to center fielder Billy Cook. Joey Ortiz scores. Jackson Chourio scores. (inning 5) — -25% Brewers
6Bryan Reynolds singles on a line drive to right fielder Luis Lara. Brandon Lowe scores.2–3
5Brice Turang doubles (23) on a fly ball to center fielder Billy Cook. Joey Ortiz scores. Jackson Chourio scores.2–2
4Esmerlyn Valdez homers (10) on a fly ball to left field. Bryan Reynolds scores.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
