Cubs at Pirates
Last play · Jared Triolo called out on strikes.
Win probability
Pirates0%
CHC 100%PIT 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCHC 3 – 0 PIT
Cubs led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8 ↓
fair over 50.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+107 / -128
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Pirates favored ↑50%Cubs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Seiya Suzuki singles on a line drive to right fielder Esmerlyn Valdez. Miguel Amaya scores. Pete Crow-Armstrong scores. (inning 5) — -21% Cubs
8Pedro Ramírez doubles (7) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Billy Cook. James Triantos scores.11–0
7Pete Crow-Armstrong homers (23) on a fly ball to right field. Pedro Ramírez scores.10–0
6Michael Busch singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Esmerlyn Valdez. Miguel Amaya scores. Pete Crow-Armstrong scores.8–0
6Miguel Amaya singles on a line drive to left fielder Bryan Reynolds. Pedro Ramírez scores. Dansby Swanson scores.6–0
6Dansby Swanson doubles (13) on a line drive to left fielder Bryan Reynolds. Nico Hoerner scores. Pedro Ramírez to 3rd.4–0
5Seiya Suzuki singles on a line drive to right fielder Esmerlyn Valdez. Miguel Amaya scores. Pete Crow-Armstrong scores.3–0
5Pete Crow-Armstrong doubles (18) on a line drive to center fielder Jake Mangum. Dansby Swanson scores. Miguel Amaya to 3rd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
