D-backs at Pirates
Last play · Brandon Lowe singles on a ground ball to first baseman Ildemaro Vargas. Billy Cook scores. Jake Mangum to 3rd.
Win probability
Pirates100%
AZ 0%PIT 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalAZ 0 – 0 PIT
Tied through 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 50.5% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-104 / -115
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Pirates favored ↑50%D-backs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Bryan Reynolds doubles (26) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Jorge Barrosa. Brandon Lowe scores. (inning 8) — +32% Pirates
10Brandon Lowe singles on a ground ball to first baseman Ildemaro Vargas. Billy Cook scores. Jake Mangum to 3rd.2–3
8Bryan Reynolds doubles (26) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Jorge Barrosa. Brandon Lowe scores.2–2
6Brandon Lowe singles on a ground ball to shortstop Geraldo Perdomo. Jake Mangum scores.2–1
6Max Kepler doubles (5) on a ground ball to right fielder Tyler Callihan. Corbin Carroll scores. Geraldo Perdomo scores. Ketel Marte to 3rd.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
