D-backs at Pirates
AZ8–
PIT7Last play · Tyler Callihan strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Pirates0%
AZ 100%PIT 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalAZ 5 – 0 PIT
D-backs led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 9
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-108 / -111
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Pirates favored ↑50%D-backs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Bryan Reynolds homers (15) on a fly ball to right center field. (inning 9) — +42% Pirates
12James McCann singles on a line drive to right fielder Esmerlyn Valdez. Tyler Locklear scores.8–7
10Jared Triolo reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by first baseman Tyler Locklear. Endy Rodríguez scores. Fielding error by first baseman Tyler Locklear.7–7
10Ildemaro Vargas reaches on a fielder's choice. Tyler Locklear scores. Jorge Barrosa to 2nd. Fielding error by shortstop Jared Triolo.7–6
9Bryan Reynolds homers (15) on a fly ball to right center field.6–6
9Brandon Lowe homers (22) on a fly ball to right center field. Jake Mangum scores.6–5
8Marcell Ozuna singles on a ground ball to shortstop Geraldo Perdomo. Nick Gonzales scores. Endy Rodríguez to 3rd.6–3
8Endy Rodríguez singles on a line drive to center fielder Ryan Waldschmidt. Ryan O'Hearn scores. Nick Gonzales to 3rd.6–2
8Ryan O'Hearn doubles (14) on a line drive to right fielder Corbin Carroll. Bryan Reynolds scores.6–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.