Mets at Pirates
Last play · Bryan Reynolds grounds out, second baseman Marcus Semien to first baseman Jared Young.
Win probability
Pirates0%
NYM 100%PIT 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYM 6 – 0 PIT
Mets led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8 ↑
fair over 48.6% · hold 4.4%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+119 / -128
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Pirates favored ↑50%Mets favored ↓
Biggest swing · Marcus Semien homers (14) on a fly ball to left center field. Carson Benge scores. Jared Young scores. (inning 3) — -21% Mets
9Brandon Lowe singles on a line drive to center fielder A.J. Ewing. Jake Mangum scores.6–4
9Jacob Gonzalez singles on a fly ball to right fielder Brett Baty. Ronny Simon scores. Jacob Gonzalez out at 2nd on the throw, right fielder Brett Baty to shortstop Francisco Lindor.6–3
7Jake Mangum out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Brett Baty. Ronny Simon scores. Jared Triolo to 3rd.6–2
7Jared Triolo singles on a line drive to left fielder Cristian Pache. Nick Gonzales scores. Ronny Simon to 2nd.6–1
4Francisco Lindor singles on a line drive to center fielder Jake Mangum. A.J. Ewing scores.6–0
3Marcus Semien homers (14) on a fly ball to left center field. Carson Benge scores. Jared Young scores.5–0
3Carson Benge singles on a ground ball to right fielder Esmerlyn Valdez. Francisco Lindor scores.2–0
1Carson Benge singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Jake Mangum. A.J. Ewing scores. Bo Bichette to 2nd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
